ASIA DEMOCRACY CHRONICLES Preparing to Survive

This story and image were produced by Asia Democracy Chronicles.

It has been nearly two decades since Cyclone Sidr had her fighting for her life as she was swept away by the high tide in the dead of the night. But just being reminded of that natural calamity makes Rasna Begum cry. While she had managed to survive, three members of her family were among the 22 residents of Chalitatali village, in Bangladesh’s coastal district of Barguna, whose lives were claimed by the cyclone.

Bangladesh is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. It ranks 13th in the long-term Climate Risk Index (CRI) published by Germanwatch, which assesses climate-related hazards such as floods, heat waves, cyclones and storms. The Climate Debt Risk Index (CDRI) 2025 placed Bangladesh in the ‘high risk’ category, with a risk score of 65.37 out of 100.

Every cyclone has led to devastation in the South Asian country, with crops and livestock lost, infrastructure damaged or destroyed, and, most times, people killed. Cyclone Sidr, which struck in 2007, had a recorded death toll of nearly 3,400.

A 1970 cyclone that hit the coast of what would later become Bangladesh still stands as the deadliest in global history, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). About 500,000 people are estimated to have died in that cyclone, although some believe the actual number is double that.

As countries worldwide lag behind their obligations under the Paris Agreement, Bangladesh is among the nations likely to suffer most from the worsening effects of climate change. That should be making Rasna Begum shudder. Yet while the thought of yet another cyclone lashing through her village does make her worried, she is confident that whatever impact it will have will be something they would be able to manage – and live through.

“Small pre-disaster supports protect us from the big shocks of cyclones,” she says. “Disaster preparedness saves our lives, protects our property, reduces our loss and damage. After renovating the road on the river bank, tidal water no longer enters our house.”

Anticipatory Action (AA) pilot projects were first started in Bangladesh, Togo, and Uganda in 2015 by the German Red Cross and the World Food Programme (WFP).  Today the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) is leading the global Anticipatory Action. In Asia, aside from Bangladesh, it is also being implemented in Nepal, Afghanistan, and the Philippines.

Essentially a disaster-preparedness program, AA in Bangladesh is not only for cyclones and floods, but also for heatwaves. The Bangladesh government has adopted its protocol while the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BRCS) spearheads its implementation in affected areas. The approach works through predictive triggers, and includes thresholds and decision-making rules based on reliable, timely, and measurable forecasts.

For now, AA is being implemented in 13 cyclone-prone, sea-facing coastal districts, 11 flood-prone districts in the northern Jamuna river basin, and Dhaka for heatwaves. But the program’s effect has already been dramatic. Since 2016, Bangladesh’s deaths due to cyclones have not crossed 35 in number per disaster, according to BRCS data.

The U.K.-based research organization Our World In Data, in an October 2025 post on X, said that since 2007, the country has had no year in which deaths linked to cyclones exceeded 200 despite multiple Category 4 and 5 cyclones.

Meanwhile, a 2025 study by Start Fund Bangladesh shows that pre-disaster measures can provide much greater livelihood and asset protection than post-disaster measures. Every $1 invested before a disaster can reduce livelihood losses by $14.88 after a disaster, it says; while in terms of asset losses, every $1 invested before a disaster can reduce losses by up to $7.5 after a disaster.

“Anticipatory action has gradually become an important strategy for disaster management in Bangladesh since 2015,” says climate and disaster analyst M. Zakir Hossain Khan. “Timely early warnings before floods and cyclones, cash assistance, evacuation of livestock and assets to safe places, and preparation of shelters have significantly reduced loss of life and livelihoods.”

“Field experience shows that timely action reduces both damage and subsequent rehabilitation costs,” he adds.

No more wait and see

The measures under AA are simple, and the program design straightforward: make preparations that are guided by science and technology, anticipate needs such as repairs, shelter, food, and transportation, and provide people with the funds to address these needs.

Yet what has really made the difference is that AA forces a change in mindset, from reaction to preparation. People no longer wait and see what the disaster will bring before doing something; instead, they anticipate possible impacts that they then try to protect themselves against.

AA is made up of four components, starting with forecasting and triggers. Considering weather forecasts, disaster or potential disaster risk analysis, the impact of past disasters, and human vulnerability, a criterion or trigger is set for implementing advanced activities. An affected area, for example, may activate a specific action plan once the meteorological office predicts that the water level will, say, cross the danger level in the next five days.

Component two covers pre-agreed actions. Also called “early actions,” these measures include evacuating people from dangerous areas, arranging safe shelter for livestock, early harvesting of crops, and storing dry food and clean water.

The third component is pre-arranged financing, which many consider as AA’s most important aspect. Instead of releasing aid after the disaster occurs, funds are allocated in advance and released as soon as a trigger is activated.

These include grants to families who are selected according to the forecast and trigger. The money is sent to the recipient via mobile phone. In the case of cyclones, the money is delivered 35 to 38 hours in advance of the cyclone’s expected arrival. For floods, the money arrives a bit earlier. The amount remains the same, however: BDT 5,000 (around $41) per family.

The money is expected to be used for repairing and strengthening homes, buying food and medicine, and covering the costs of early harvesting of crops and putting these and livestock in safe spaces.

Way before Cyclone Remal made landfall in Bangladesh in 2024, Safia Begum of Majkhali village, also in Barguna, received the cash grant through her cell phone. Her family used the money to make house repairs, shift livestock, and buy food to help them ride out the storm. Part of the grant also went into hiring a boat to bring them to a cyclone shelter.

Cash for work is also part of AA’s component number three. Residents of communities covered by AA are paid for work – such as building roads, bridges, embankments, and dams — meant to keep their villages safe from floods and the effects of cyclones. In Chalitatali village, residents built a dam on the banks of Payra River in anticipation of Cyclone Remal.

Currently, the set fee for such work is BDT 2,000 ($16.45); women are encouraged to participate. Each resident can be part of a cash-for-work activity once a year.

AA’s component four is disaster awareness and knowledge. Disaster-knowledge enrichment workshops are organized at community level, as many villagers in affected areas were found to be making the same mistakes every time a natural calamity struck.

Many also ignored government instructions and warnings. One reason for this is that state materials on calamity to-dos were often in writing, and people were either illiterate or too busy to read these. Another is that some instructions have been quite tricky to follow. People were told to go to shelters when there were practically no roads leading to them in some areas. Sometimes, the shelters themselves were in such bad shape that people considered their homes safer.

AA disaster-awareness activities now include information about cyclone signals and the steps families should take at each one. Strategies for protecting assets and lives are taught as well at the workshops.

By their own hands

According to Start Fund Bangladesh, Anticipatory Action saved many lives and limited the damage caused by Cyclone Remal in Bangladesh’s coastal areas. Aside from the timely announcement of the cyclone’s coming, cash grants, and workshops, several cash-for-work activities in preparation for it proved key in protecting the communities.

For instance, local nonprofit NGO UTTARAN, with Start Network support, undertook an initiative to repair dams in a Satkhira sub-district. This resulted in the direct economic benefit of coastal communities in protecting resources and livelihoods. With Oxfam support, JAGO NARI, another local NGO, constructed eight ring dams to reduce pressure on embankments and cyclone shelter link roads in different areas of Barguna.

“Anticipatory measures have been helping disaster-prone people prepare for disasters for the past few years,” says JAGO NARI chief executive Hosne Ara Hasi. “Repairing embankments is a major step in mitigating erosion. Increasing awareness of disaster issues through early action reduces loss of life and property.”

The United Nations itself has set the goal of ensuring ‘Early Warning for All’ by 2027.  U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said, “Early warnings are not an abstraction. They empower farmers to protect their crops and livestock. They enable families to evacuate to safety. And they protect entire communities from destruction.”

“We know that disaster-related mortality is at least six times lower in countries with advanced early warning systems. And just 24 hours’ notice of a dangerous event can reduce losses by up to 30 percent.”

AA in Bangladesh still faces several hurdles, however. In Barguna, BRCS member Mizanur Rahman points out that “many people in marginalized areas do not understand (text) messages” sent to their phones “due to illiteracy.” Local administrative council member Nasir Khan says, “There is a limited transportation system and lack of necessary online-based services. Due to this, remote island areas have to face various adversities. Problems arise in digital services due to the internet network and other complications.”

For his part, Barguna Union Disaster Management Committee President Humayun Kabir says, “The budget and scope of work of Anticipatory Action must be increased. Initiatives must be taken to reach more people with assistance.”

Challenges

More than a decade after AA was introduced in Bangladesh, in fact, it has yet to find space in the country’s central and local government budgets. Its funds still come from private donors and local and international NGOs. Climate analyst Khan says that to make AA more effective, “automatic trigger-based fund releases, integrated digital platforms for weather and water information, and capacity building of local governments are needed.”

In addition,” he says, “it is necessary to establish a permanent anticipatory fund in the national budget. Investing before disasters, not reacting after disasters, is a more humane and economically prudent path for climate-vulnerable Bangladesh.”

“Disasters are increasing in Bangladesh due to climate change,” says climate expert Md Shamsuddoha. “As a result, loss and damage are increasing. Victims are forced to take loans after disasters to overcome the damage and they have to bear the burden of that debt for many years. Anticipatory measures in disaster response are helping people reduce loss and damage.”

He adds: “By expanding early preparedness activities, we can further strengthen adaptation. We need to integrate predictive measures with disaster management.”